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'The Last Laugh': EU Sanctions on Russia Backfiring as Moscow Winning 'Energy War,' Analysts Say_我的网站

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China has firmly rejected and condemned a new annual report by the New Zealand Security Intelligence Service on Friday which once again fabricates and sensationalizes claims about so-called "Chinese interference" and "China threat," stressing that the report is rife with Cold War thinking and contains unfounded accusations against China.
This report is clearly linked to a series of recent negative developments in New Zealand's China-related policies, a Chinese expert told the Global Times on Friday. 
Recently, New Zealand has continuously toughened its rhetoric toward China, which to some extent reflects a form of "compensatory hawkishness" aimed at demonstrating its reliability within the Five Eyes alliance, Chen Hong, director of New Zealand Studies Centre, East China Normal University, told the Global Times. "Rather than reflecting 'strategic confidence,' this trend may reveal a sense of 'identity anxiety,'" Chen said. 
The New Zealand intelligence agency claimed in the report released on Thursday that China is the only nation pursuing espionage in New Zealand at scale, Radio New Zealand reported. It also claimed that such activity posed threat to New Zealand, which is the "most challenging of recent times."
Many of its unfounded accusations against China either maliciously label normal exchanges, communication and cooperation as so-called espionage or interference activities, or are simply baseless fabrications. China absolutely rejects and firmly opposes this, the Chinese Embassy in New Zealand said in a statement released on Friday. 
The release of this report at this time is part of a new round of attacks, smears and vilification of China orchestrated by certain international forces. In itself, the report may well be the result of foreign interference, the embassy said. 
In June, security agencies from the "Five Eyes" alliance issued a warning, claiming that Chinese spies used online job platforms to recruit people with access to sensitive information, according to a Reuters report.
For now, the annual report has further escalated its rhetoric, effectively creating a chain in which the Five Eyes' warnings and New Zealand's domestic threat assessments reinforce and echo each other, the Chinese expert said. 
The Lowy Institute said in a latest article on Thursday that New Zealand had long been considered the weakest link in Five Eyes and the easiest for China to try to cow. "But New Zealand has now called out China by name in its intelligence warnings so often that officials joke it has become tougher on Beijing than Australia is," the article said. 
The extent to which New Zealand's intelligence agencies have publicly singled out China has in fact gone further than Australia's, which, I think, represents a compensatory hardline posture, Chen noted. 
"New Zealand wants to demonstrate that it is a very active and very tough member of the Five Eyes. In fact, we have recently seen New Zealand take a high-profile stance on issues ranging from Pacific Island countries and China's relations with South Pacific and South China Sea nations to China's missile tests and other China-related issues. All of these developments can be viewed in the context of this policy shift," the expert said. 
This suggests that some forces within New Zealand's security and foreign policy establishment are consciously trying to demonstrate that New Zealand is not a weak link in the Five Eyes alliance, but rather an active participant, Chen added. 
The report also reflects the fact that some people both within and outside New Zealand do not want to see China-New Zealand relations develop positively. By going to great lengths to spread rumors, they seek to drive a wedge between the peoples of the two countries, create a chilling effect among the public, including overseas Chinese, undermine bilateral mutual trust, and obstruct the development of bilateral relations, the embassy noted. 
Their actions serve geopolitical purposes and the narrow, short-sighted political interests of certain forces. Their intentions are clear to anyone with insight, and their objectives will not succeed.
The embassy also noted that the essence of China-New Zealand relations is mutually beneficial cooperation and win-win outcomes. In recent years, with the joint efforts of both sides, bilateral relations have made steady progress. Bilateral trade has repeatedly reached new highs, bringing substantial income and employment opportunities to New Zealanders. 
People-to-people exchanges have continued to grow, with the numbers of tourists and international students increasing steadily, promoting mutual understanding and closer ties between the peoples of the two countries. The overseas Chinese community in New Zealand has played a unique and important positive role in this regard. 
Since China introduced a unilateral visa-free policy for New Zealand, many New Zealand tourists have visited China, witnessing firsthand China's development achievements and openness and inclusiveness, the embassy said. 
As a result of various factors, New Zealanders' understanding of China has become more comprehensive and objective in recent years, while favorable views of China and support for China-New Zealand relations have continued to rise
The embassy also warned those forces and individuals attempting to engage in political manipulation: Do not undermine the hard-won, mutually beneficial and win-win China-New Zealand relationship for your own selfish interests, thereby harming the interests of New Zealand and its people. 
Acting as pawns for anti-China forces internationally will ultimately prove counterproductive. Creating controversies in foreign relations will not solve New Zealand's problems; it will likely only make matters worse, the embassy said, urging these forces and individuals not to resort to desperate measures that will ultimately harm themselves, or lift a rock only to drop it on their own feet.
China attaches importance to its relations with New Zealand and is willing to work with the New Zealand side, on the basis of the consensus reached by the leaders of the two countries, to advance exchanges and cooperation in various fields, including political mutual trust, practical cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, and to better benefit the peoples of both countries, the embassy said. 
However, the development of China-New Zealand relations does not depend on China alone. We hope the New Zealand side will work in the same direction as China, rather than the opposite. Otherwise, the New Zealand side will bear responsibility for any consequences arising from such a course of action, it noted. 
。    Western sanctions that followed the launching of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine in February were nakedly aimed at reducing Russia energy exports to zero and making the Russian economy “scream,” as they had similarly attempted with Venezuela and Iran. However, with Moscow securing new markets and prices rebounding, it’s Europeans who are on the losing end of things, experts told Sputnik on Thursday.,According to Bloomberg, prices across Europe are expected to increase sharply later this year, when European sanctions against Russian crude oil exports take effect, with some places predicting a doubling in prices. All this while Russia’s crude oil production and income continue to recover to pre-February levels, thanks to expanded exports to Asian buyers and a healthy relationship with OPEC+.,Western European governments had better hope the winter is warm, because if people start freezing due to fuel shortages, they will demand an end to their government’s policies blocking the gas.,Dr. Mamdouh G. Salameh, a visiting professor of energy economics at the ESCP Business School in London, told Sputnik that “energy is far more formidable weapon in the hand of President Putin than hydrogen bombs.”,“The world, particularly the European Union (EU), is very dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. That is why Western sanctions have so far largely refrained from sanctioning Russian oil and gas exports to the EU and that is why Russia is winning the energy war,” the economist asserted.,“Western sanctions against Russia have on the whole failed miserably,” he said. “The sanctions are hurting the economies of those imposing them rather than the Russian economy.”,He noted that in the US and EU alike, high gas prices are having widespread effects across their economies, helping to push the EU into a recession.,“There will very soon come the time when European citizens will ask their governments to stop spending billions of dollars supplying Ukraine with weapons rather than use these billions to help them reduce their energy bills,” he predicted. “The day is coming when the EU will reverse course on Ukraine and lift the sanctions against Russia in return for plentiful Russian cheap gas and oil supplies. If it is to be able to do that, the EU has to free itself from the United States’ pressure and stand up to the US.”,“The more sanctions Western countries impose on Russia, the higher the prices of oil and gas surge and the more revenues Russia gets from its energy exports,” Salameh said, adding that “Western analysts and some experts are daydreaming and also deluding themselves if they think that the Russian energy sector is failing. They are trying to talk down Russia’s energy sector but they are doomed to fail miserably.”,“The real irony is that Russia’s economy will emerge in a better shape than most Western economies in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict. Putin is going to have the last laugh.”,Vladimir Demidov, an international expert on the resources and energy markets, told Sputnik that regardless of the path of European policy, at this point, Russian energy is not coming back. European nations will adapt, but the higher energy costs will stay and will cause Europe’s global standing to decline.,“I don't think there's going to be a global crisis, given that [there is] a fairly rapid filling of underground storage facilities,” he said. “I think that talking about freezing is a fiction, of course, provided that -40 [Celsius] does not hold in Europe. And then, I think, it will be more difficult.”,“Next year, I don't think they will freeze at all,” he predicted. “Enough gas for them and mine, I think they will unpack their coal mines, cuts, quarries. There they will start producing gas at home, by fracturing the reservoir, in general, they will kill nature, but they will have enough gas.”,“And in the future, Gazprom will only supply less. I think its share will fall to 50 billion [cubic meters per day] in the next two or three years, at most. The problem is that everything that is mined by them [Europe] is very expensive. The role of Europe as an economically independent unit of the world economy will simply disappear. Europe will cease to be independent,” Demidov said.,Still, Demidov predicted that Europe’s sanctions policies would continue, even as they set in motion the gradual decline of the continent.,“In Europe, four premiers are gone, including in Great Britain. I do not think that it [governments dissolving] will continue; if the winter is really warm enough, then other premiers will not fly. And everyone is fine, they will say that ‘you see, we did it! These hordes have not conquered us!’ After that, the fall of the European economy will start. The sanctions they have introduced have not been thought through, they will cause themselves more damage than Russia in the next 3-5 years.”。

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